Quick answer: Housing approvals are not collapsing, but momentum is easing after five RBA rate rises this year, and commercial work is where a lot of new activity is heading, including data centres. Commercial electrical tendering differs from residential work in how the job arrives, what you price from, the paperwork and how you get paid. Start by pricing a few suitable commercial tenders alongside your housing work, using the same discipline you already apply to your estimates.

Key takeaways

• Private house approvals fell 5.3 percent in September and the monthly trend has slowed, but they are still above 10,000 a month, so this is a levelling off, not a crash.
• The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85 percent on 3 November, and forecasters expect the effect on housing to build over the medium term.
• Commercial tenders arrive as drawings and specifications, carry more paperwork and are paid through progress claims, so check your capacity and cash flow first.
• Do not chase a single month of non-residential data. It swings widely from month to month.

Is residential electrical work slowing in Australia?

Momentum is easing, but work is not drying up. Private sector house approvals fell 5.3 percent in September to 10,432, the biggest monthly drop since August 2025, and fell in every state the ABS publishes. The monthly growth in the trend has slowed from about 1.8 percent in January to 0.1 percent in September. Houses are still 9.6 percent above a year ago and have been above 10,000 a month for nine months straight.

The bigger question is what comes next. The RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.85 percent on 3 November, its fifth rise this year. HIA expects past momentum to hold approvals near current levels until the end of the year, while Oxford Economics expects a materially weaker medium-term outlook for residential construction. If your diary is mostly new homes, it is worth spreading your risk now, while you are busy. If you want to see how we suggested pricing the September surge, read our post on pricing electrical tenders as enquiries surge.

Where is commercial electrical work coming from?

A large share of the new commercial activity is data centres, which are concentrated in Sydney and Melbourne. The RBA revised up its near-term forecasts for business and dwelling investment in its November statement, mainly because of strong data centre activity, while noting pressure on construction resources.

• Roughly 91 percent of ABS-measured activity in the category that includes data centres is in New South Wales and Victoria, according to Green.com.au research reported in October.
• Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) reports that around 95 percent of the projected data centre pipeline is in Sydney and Melbourne, and that electricians are among the trades in short supply.
• NECA has warned that Australia was already projected to be short by around 42,500 electricians by 2030, before the data centre boom.

Be careful with single-month figures. Non-residential approvals jumped 45.9 percent in September after falling 45.5 percent in August, and the trend fell 1.1 percent. Treat the commercial opportunity as a steady pipeline to build, not a one-month spike to chase. Government, health, education and other commercial work also go to tender, and they are not limited to the two big cities.

What is the difference between residential and commercial electrical tendering

The mathematics of estimating is the same, but the process around it is different. In short, commercial work arrives as tender documents, is priced from drawings and specifications, comes with more contract conditions and is usually paid through progress claims.

Where do you find commercial electrical tenders in Australia?

Commercial electrical tenders come from builders and head contractors, who invite subcontractors to price, and from government buyers, who advertise through portals. Practical places to look:

• Builders and head contractors: ask to be added to their tender lists, and keep in touch with the estimators who run them
• Buying for Victoria: Victorian Government tenders, which departments must advertise there
• AusTender: the current list of Australian federal government tenders
• TenderLink: tenders from Victorian councils
• Construction Supplier Register: the Victorian pre-qualification scheme for building and construction consultants and contractors

Other states run their own portals, so check yours. Business Victoria explains that requests for quotation suit lower-value, lower-risk purchases, while requests for tender suit complex or high-risk ones, and that tenders can be open to everyone or limited to invited suppliers.

How do you price a commercial electrical tender?

Price it from the drawings and specification, line by line, then add the costs a residential job rarely carries. Work through these steps:

1. Read the whole tender package. Drawings, specification, conditions and any addenda.
2. Take off the drawings (BOQ). Count and measure what the drawings show. If the drawings are revised during the tender, price off the latest revision.
3. Price labour and materials. Use your real labour hours and current supplier prices.
4. Add site and preliminary costs. Supervision, set-up, access equipment, travel and the programme.
5. Set out inclusions, exclusions and qualifications. Be specific about what you have not priced.
6. Add overhead and margin. Apply your usual approach.
7. Set a validity period. Prices move, so decide how long yours stays open. See rise and fall clauses and tender validity.
8. Plan for variations. Changes are normal on commercial jobs. Know the notice steps in the contract before you start.

For a wider guide, read our post on how to win electrical tenders.

What should you check before taking on commercial work?

Check your capacity, your cash flow and your paperwork before you submit. A commercial win is only a good result if you can deliver it profitably.

• Capacity: do you have the electricians to deliver it without pulling people off your housing jobs? With a national shortage projected, labour is the limit for many contractors.
• Cash flow: commercial work is paid by progress claim, so know the payment terms and claim dates in the contract. Victoria’s security of payment reforms, in effect since 15 April 2026, give claimants a general entitlement to monthly progress claims, but other states differ.
• Paperwork: ask the head contractor what insurance, safety and prequalification documents they require, and have them ready.
• Supply: on large projects, lead times for major electrical packages can be long, so confirm availability before you commit to a programme.

How many tenders do you need to price?

It depends on your win rate, which only your own records can tell you. As an illustration, if you win one in five tenders and want two new commercial jobs a month, you need to price about ten a month. If you win one in ten, you need about twenty. The faster you can produce an accurate tender, the more of them you can afford to price.

How does esti-mate electrical help you move into commercial work?

Commercial tenders are won on speed and accuracy, and both start with the take-off. Count-UP digital take-off lets you count and measure from the drawings on screen, and the Overlay Feature places the old and new versions of a drawing on top of each other and highlights every difference, so you do not price off the wrong revision during a tender. Because your labour rates and material costs sit in esti-mate electrical, each tender reflects today’s numbers.

Is residential electrical work slowing in Australia?
A rise and fall clause is a term that lets the contract price move with actual increases in labour and material costs during the job. It is also called a fluctuation or cost escalation clause. It usually allows increases only and does not reduce the price when costs fall.

Is commercial electrical work more profitable than residential?
There is no single answer. Margins depend on how well you price, how you manage variations and how quickly you are paid. Commercial work brings more paperwork and different risks, so profit comes from process as much as price.

Where do I find commercial electrical tenders?
From builders and head contractors who invite you to price, and from government portals such as Buying for Victoria, AusTender and TenderLink. Other states run their own portals.

What is the difference between residential and commercial electrical tendering?
Commercial tendering is priced from drawings and a specification, comes with more contract conditions and is usually paid through progress claims. Residential work is more often priced from a site visit and paid in stages

How many tenders should I price?
Divide the number of jobs you want by your win rate. If you win one in five tenders and want two jobs a month, price about ten a month. Track your own win rate to get a real figure.

Thinking about adding commercial work?

Get in touch with the Esti-mate electrical team on 1300 948 586, or jump into Stephen’s Monthly Estimating Course to sharpen your tender pricing.

This article is general information only and is not legal or financial advice. Market data changes quickly, so check current figures and have a construction lawyer review contract terms before you rely on them.